Non-Linear Theory and Power-Law Models for Information Integration and Mineral Resources Quantitative Assessments   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Qiuming Cheng 《Mathematical Geosciences》2008,40(5):503-532

Singular physical or chemical processes may result in anomalous amounts of energy release or mass accumulation that, generally, are confined to narrow intervals in space or time. Singularity is a property of different types of non-linear natural processes including cloud formation, rainfall, hurricanes, flooding, landslides, earthquakes, wildfires, and mineralization. The end products of these non-linear processes can be modeled as fractals or multifractals. Hydrothermal processes in the Earth’s crust can result in ore deposits characterized by high concentrations of metals with fractal or multifractal properties. Here we show that the non-linear properties of the end products of singular mineralization processes can be applied for prediction of undiscovered mineral deposits and for quantitative mineral resource assessment, whether for mineral exploration or for regional, national and global planning for mineral resource utilization. In addition to the general theory and framework for the non-linear mineral resources assessment, this paper focuses on several power-law models proposed for characterizing non-linear properties of mineralization and for geoinformation extraction and integration. The theories, methods, and computer system discussed in this paper were validated using a case study dealing with hydrothermal Au mineral potential in southern Nova Scotia, Canada.  相似文献   

The dynamics and thermodynamics of large ash flows   总被引：6，自引：6，他引：0  

Marcus I. Bursik  Andrew W. Woods 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1996,58(2-3):175-193

 Ash flow deposits, containing up to 1000 km³ of material, have been produced by some of the largest volcanic eruptions known. Ash flows propagate several tens of kilometres from their source vents, produce extensive blankets of ash and are able to surmount topographic barriers hundreds of metres high. We present and test a new model of the motion of such flows as they propagate over a near horizontal surface from a collapsing fountain above a volcanic vent. The model predicts that for a given eruption rate, either a slow (10–100 m/s) and deep (1000–3000 m) subcritical flow or a fast (100–200 m/s) and shallow (500–1000 m) supercritical flow may develop. Subcritical ash flows propagate with a nearly constant volume flux, whereas supercritical flows entrain air and become progressively more voluminous. The run-out distance of such ash flows is controlled largely by the mass of air mixed into the collapsing fountain, the degree of fragmentation and the associated rate of loss of material into an underlying concentrated depositional system, and the mass eruption rate. However, in supercritical flows, the continued entrainment of air exerts a further important control on the flow evolution. Model predictions show that the run-out distance decreases with the mass of air entrained into the flow. Also, the mass of ash which may ascend from the flow into a buoyant coignimbrite cloud increases as more air is entrained into the flow. As a result, supercritical ash flows typically have shorter runout distances and more ash is elutriated into the associated coignimbrite eruption columns. We also show that one-dimensional, channellized ash flows typically propagate further than their radially spreading counterparts. As a Plinian eruption proceeds, the erupted mass flux often increases, leading to column collapse and the formation of pumiceous ash flows. Near the critical conditions for eruption column collapse, the flows are shed from high fountains which entrain large quantities of air per unit mass. Our model suggests that this will lead to relatively short ash flows with much of the erupted material being elutriated into the coignimbrite column. However, if the mass flux subseqently increases, then less air per unit mass is entrained into the collapsing fountain, and progressively larger flows, which propagate further from the vent, will develop. Our model is consistent with observations of a number of pyroclastic flow deposits, including the 1912 eruption of Katmai and the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo. The model suggests that many extensive flow sheets were emplaced from eruptions with mass fluxes of 10⁹–10¹⁰ kg/s over periods of 10³–10⁵ s, and that some indicators of flow "mobility" may need to be reinterpreted. Furthermore, in accordance with observations, the model predicts that the coignimbrite eruption columns produced from such ash flows rose between 20 and 40 km. Received: 25 August 1995 / Accepted: 3 April 1996  相似文献   

Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland     

Erik Rüttener  Juan José Egozcue  Dieter Mayer-Rosa  Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.  相似文献   

ELECTROCHEMICAL MEASUREMENT OF STEEL CORROSION IN SEABOTTOM SEDIMENT WITH “MD” METHOD     

马士德  李言涛  谢肖勃  郑国安  常伟  栗艳侠 《中国海洋湖沼学报》1996,(2)

The tbough one year cormsion potential and polarisation resistanoc for 3 kinds of stals in seabottomedment of Liaodong Bay were measured with the “MD” method.The measurements wiIl have some thoretical and pndital talues. The thooretical valoc lies in thatthe reoorded changing process of the practital corrosion case can be basis for indoor discussion andeectrochemical on the corrosion practical value lies in that the obtained datu canbe basis for designing and controlling elatrochemical protation syttems. In fact, it is very difficult tomeasure in situ the cornosion parnders of steeIs in sea sediment.  相似文献   

Seismic hazard of Egypt   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. El-Sayed  R. Wahlströ;m  O. Kulhánek 《Natural Hazards》1994,10(3):247-259

Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum expected magnitude,M _max, annual activity rate,, andb value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for two regions of Egypt. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The catalogue used covers earthquakes with magnitude 3 from the time interval 320–1987. The uncertainties in magnitude estimates and threshold of completeness were taken into account. The hazard parameter determination is performed for two study areas. The first area, Gulf of Suez, has higher seismicity level than the second, all other active zones in Egypt.b-values of 1.2 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.1 are obtained for the two areas, respectively. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude 3 is much larger in the Gulf of Suez, 39 ± 2 than in the other areas, 6.1 ± 0.5. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated to be 6.5 ± 0.4 for a time span of 209 years for the Gulf of Suez and 6.1 ± 0.3 for a time span of 1667 years for the remaining active areas in Egypt. Respective periods of 10 and 20 years were reported for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 for the two subareas.  相似文献   

On the tidal variation of the geopotential     

José M. Ferrándiz  Juan Getino 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1993,57(1-2):279-292

In this paper analytical expressions are derived for the temporal variations ofJ ₂ andJ ₂₂ due to the tides of the solid Earth, taking into account only the deformation of the mantle, and employing a procedure already used by the authors in their Hamiltonian theory of the Earth's rotation, which obtain the necessary parameters in a direct way by integration of those provided by a selected model of Earth interior.Numerical tables giving the periodic variation of coefficients are given, as well as a new prediction for UT1. For J ₂ and J ₂₂ the amplitudes reach such a magnitude that both two variations should not be ignored in studies involving the analysis of highly precise satellite tracking data. Moreover, the possibility of improving our knowledge of the value of those harmonic coefficients in only a more exact digit appears as to be strongly dependent on the limitations in the theoretical modeling of the variations of the inertia tensor due to solid tides.  相似文献   

Probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation in underground mines     

Ewa GłOwacka 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(2):121-132

Stress concentrations produced by rock deformation due to extraction in underground mines induce seismicity that can take the shape of violent and quite dangerous rockbursts.The hazard evaluation presented in this paper is based on a Bayesian probabilistic synthesis of information determined from mining situations during excavation, with previous and present data from microseismicity and seismoacustics.The method proposed in this study is an example of time-dependent on-line seismic hazard evaluation. All results presented were obtained retrospectiely for different underground coal mines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences 01-452 Warszawa, ul. Ksiecia Janusza 64, Poland.  相似文献   

南海北部陆缘新生代玄武岩地球化学特征及成因     

曹楚奇  熊发挥  杨胜标  徐向珍  刘飞  牛晓露  冯光英  邱添  杨经绥 《地质学报》2022,96(8):2683-2704

南海盆地及周缘地区新生代玄武岩对揭示南海盆地的演化历史至关重要，然而这些玄武岩的成因还存在争议。本文研究了位于南海北部陆缘的海南岛临高县多文组玄武岩岩石地球化学和矿物地球化学特征，并探讨其成因和构造背景。多文组玄武岩主要由橄榄石、单斜辉石、斜长石、斜方辉石、铬尖晶石和铁钛氧化物等组成。橄榄石Fo值变化于55. 5~71. 1之间，Ni的含量较低， Fe/Mn比值较高。铬尖晶石Cr#值为74. 1~82. 7，Mg#值为45. 5~63. 8， Ti的含量较高。斜方辉石Mg#值为63. 9~79. 6，单斜辉石为66. 0~80. 6。单斜辉石稀土配分曲线富集MREE，亏损LREE和HREE，呈拱形分布。斜长石以中- 拉长石为主(Ab36. 56~52. 78), 富集LREE、Ba、Sr和Eu。铁钛氧化物的TiO2含量为50. 19%~51. 46%。多文组玄武岩原始岩浆的主量和微量元素组成与夏威夷、峨眉山、塔里木等玄武岩组成一致，地幔源区包含了辉石岩的成分，而且其地幔潜在温度(＞1400℃)和氧逸度(ΔNNO)要高于大洋中脊玄武岩(N- MORB)，表明多文组玄武岩的形成与海南地幔柱活动有关。由于海南地幔柱形成时代明显晚于南海盆地的扩张时代，认为南海地幔柱是南海盆地伸展的被动响应。  相似文献   

Environmental geology problems in the Tyrrhenian coastal area of Santa Marinella, province of Rome, central Italy   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

U. Chiocchini  G. Gisotti  A. Macioce  F. Manna  A. Bolasco  C. Lucarini  G. M. Patrizi 《Environmental Geology》1997,32(1):1-8

 The Tyrrhenian resort of S. Marinella (central Italy) is subjected to significant anthropogenic pressures during the summer vacation period, a common situation all along the Italian coast. Located 65 km NW of Rome on the southern slopes of the Tolfa Mountains, S. Marinella is built on a gently sloping, E–W trending belt which is cut by 14 N–S oriented ephemeral streams that discharge into the Tyrrhenian Sea. The low to medium permeability turbiditic sandstones which outcrop along this belt belong to the Late Cretaceous Pietraforte unit. Three environmental problems are addressed in this study. The first problem is related to the high water supply demand during the summer months which has forced local residents to dig a large number of wells. Extensive pumping from these wells has caused salt-water intrusion into the Pietraforte, thus compromising the domestic use of the groundwater. The second problem consists of the illegal dumping of urban solid waste, material that represents a hazard during significant rain events as well as a possible cause of groundwater contamination. The final issue addressed concerns the flooding potential of the 14 ephemeral streams that cross the inhabited area of S. Marinella, a risk which is highlighted by the disastrous flood which occurred on 2 October 1981 and during the period of the Roman Emperor Settimio Severo (205 A.D.). Some suggestions are proposed to mitigate and contain the effects of these problems. Received: 7 November 1995 / Accepted: 5 December 1996  相似文献   

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria     

Abdallah I. Husein Malkawi  Robert Y. Liang  Jamal H. Nusairat  Azm S. Al-Homoud 《Natural Hazards》1995,12(2):139-151

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.  相似文献